E-commerce Annual Budget Planning Checklist

Export gross sales, refunds, and net sales by channel (Shopify, Amazon FBA / FBM, eBay, Walmart, Faire wholesale) for the last 24 months. Pull from Shopify Analytics, Seller Central Business Reports, and your OMS (Cin7, Skubana, Linnworks). Reconcile against accounting (QuickBooks / NetSuite) before using — marketplace deposits net of fees often diverge from gross revenue.

Apply weekly seasonality indices from prior-year actuals — Black Friday / Cyber Monday week, December cutoff, post-holiday returns slump, January / February dead zone. Don't smooth Q4 into a monthly average; the BFCM 5-day window can be 8–15% of annual revenue for a DTC brand.

Build the new-customer forecast bottom-up: paid-media spend ÷ blended CAC by channel (Meta, Google PMax, TikTok, Amazon PPC). Sanity-check against MER targets in Triple Whale or Northbeam. Watch for iOS attribution gaps — last-click underreports Meta-driven new customers by 20–40%.

Pull cohort retention curves from Lifetimely, Polar, or Klaviyo. Forecast 30/60/90/180-day repeat rates and AOV by acquisition cohort. For subscription brands, model logo churn separately from revenue churn (downgrades to lower-tier plans).

Flag any new sales channel going live in the budget period — TikTok Shop, Walmart Marketplace, Faire wholesale, Amazon EU, retail doors. New channels need their own ramp curve and launch costs, not a copy of the existing channel mix.

Model the ramp curve for the new channel separately: month 1–3 typically runs at 10–30% of steady-state. Include channel-specific fees (Walmart 6–15% commission, Faire 15% + 25% on first-time wholesale orders, Amazon EU VAT registration), launch promo discounts, and a conservative sell-through assumption.

Update unit cost, freight-in (ocean / air), duties (HTS-based), inspection, and inbound 3PL receiving per SKU. Don't use last year's landed cost — ocean rates, Section 301 China tariffs, and Section 321 de minimis rules have all moved. Underestimating landed COGS is the #1 source of margin surprise mid-year.

Pull fee schedules for ShipBob / ShipMonk / Flowspace and FBA fulfillment fees. Account for Amazon's annual FBA fee changes (typically published Jan/Feb), storage fee increases for Q4 (Oct–Dec), and aged-inventory surcharges. Carrier GRIs run 5–7% annually; layer that into outbound shipping cost.

Roll up Amazon referral fees (8–15% by category), eBay final value fees, Shopify Payments / Stripe (2.9% + 30¢), PayPal, and Affirm / Klarna BNPL fees (4–6%). For subscription brands include Recharge / Smartrr platform fees. Marketplace fees as a % of GMV should match prior-year actuals within 50 bps — variance signals a category-mix shift worth investigating.

Inventory the full stack: Shopify Plus, Klaviyo (tier scales with contact list), Gorgias, Yotpo, Recharge, Triple Whale, Helium 10, Avalara / TaxJar. Klaviyo and Shopify tier upgrades trigger automatically with growth — model the tier crossover points, not just current MRR.

Build monthly spend by channel — Meta, Google (Search + PMax), TikTok, Amazon Sponsored Products / Brands / DSP, Pinterest. Tie spend to MER / TACOS targets, not historical % of revenue. Q4 CPMs run 30–60% above Q1 baseline; don't budget a flat monthly run rate.

Weekly inflows (channel deposits net of fees, 14-day Amazon settlement lag, 1–3 day Shopify Payments, 60-day net-60 wholesale terms) against outflows (PO deposits, balance payments, payroll, ad spend, SaaS). Model the Amazon hold for new accounts or after policy escalations.

Map PO deposit (typically 30%) and balance payment (70% on B/L or pre-shipment) against cash inflow weeks. Factor Chinese New Year shutdown — POs landing in March / April need deposits in November / December. Run the cash-out week against expected sell-through to confirm you don't strand cash in inventory.

Pull the registered-state list from Avalara / TaxJar / Anrok; mark monthly, quarterly, and annual filing deadlines. Marketplace-facilitator states net out marketplace sales, but DTC site sales accumulate seller liability against the $100K / 200-transaction threshold. Add 1099-K reconciliation and Q1 estimated tax payments to the cash calendar.

Define the floor — typically 60–90 days of fixed operating expenses plus one full PO cycle. For brands with concentration on Amazon, add a buffer for an account-suspension scenario where deposits freeze for 30+ days.

For each fast-mover SKU, calculate Q4 forecast units × (lead time + safety stock) — including ocean transit (35–45 days West Coast, longer East Coast) and FBA inbound receive time (3–7 days, longer in Q4). Underordering BFCM stock loses revenue you can't recover; overordering ties up cash through Q1.

If volume forecast pushes beyond current 3PL pallet capacity or pick rates, scope a 3PL switch or second-location split. 3PL switches take 60–90 days; lock the decision before Q3 if Q4 demand requires it.

Capture Shopify Plus crossover, OMS migration (e.g., Cin7 → NetSuite), headless front-end (Hydrogen, Next.js), or PIM rollout (Akeneo, Plytix). Replatforming projects routinely run 1.5–2× initial estimate; budget contingency.

Compare options: traditional line of credit, inventory-secured financing (Wayflyer, 8fig, Settle), revenue-based financing (Clearco), Shopify Capital, Amazon Lending. Effective cost ranges from ~6% APR (LOC) to 20%+ (revenue-based). If projected cash balance dips below the reserve floor at any week, financing is on the table.

Assemble trailing 12-month P&L, balance sheet, AR/AP aging, channel-level GMV breakdown, and inventory schedule. Inventory financiers (Wayflyer, 8fig) underwrite on Shopify / Amazon revenue feeds — connect data sources before the application to shorten approval to 5–10 business days.

Define blended MER target for DTC (typically 3.0–5.0× depending on margin profile) and TACOS for Amazon (10–20% for established ASINs, 25–40% for launch). Set monthly targets, not annual averages — Q4 will run hot, Q1 will run cold.

Lock contribution margin per order (revenue – COGS – fulfillment – payment fees – ad spend) as the primary unit-economics gate. Set a hard CAC ceiling tied to 60-day or 90-day payback, not LTV — LTV math fails when growth slows.

Wire the budget into Triple Whale, Polar Analytics, or Daasity for daily MER / contribution margin tracking. Set Slack / email alerts on day-over-day variance > 15% and week-over-week > 25%.

Recurring 60-minute meeting on the second business day of each month with finance, ops, and growth leads. Walk variance, identify drivers (mix shift, ad efficiency, returns rate, fee changes), and decide reforecast triggers.

CEO / Founder signs off on the locked baseline. Capture the final P&L, cash flow, and KPI targets as the version of record. Any reforecast during the period references this baseline as the starting point.